Douglas-Westwood (DW) latest subsea hardware market forecast predicts expenditure of $94.3 billion between 2016 and 2020. This represents a 19% decline compared to the 2011-2015 period.
Report author Mark Adeosun said SURF and pipeline spend will account for more than 67% ($63 billion) of the forecast spend. “Over 7,500 km (4,660 mi) of SURF and pipelines will be installed over the next five years, supporting subsea vessel utilization levels towards the end of the forecast period.
“However, it’s pertinent to note that the pipeline market is dependent on a handful of mega projects. Theresfore, cancellations or delays will negatively impact market size over the forecast period.”
Africa, Asia, and Latin America will account for a combined 47% of total subsea hardware expenditure over the forecast period.
Deepwater basins should grow in importance, representing 48% of subsea hardware spend – an 8% increase compared with 2011-2015.
Fasttrack development plans for large deepwater fields such as Eni’s Zohr gas discovery in the Mediterranean Sea offshore Egypt and ExxonMobil’s Liza discovery off Guyana will support deepwater expenditure in the latter years of the forecast period, Adeosun added.
Research director and editor Steve Robertson said: “Despite the negativity caused by the prolonged low oil price, subsea hardware remain a critical option for future developments, as new reserves are discovered in remote and deepwater basins.”